Looking for Allies to Battle HOT

quote:

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Originally posted by RobertLangDirect
[br]From MJ on another HOV topic:
http://www.wtop.com/index.php?nid=25&sid=385255

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Some environmentalists stress the states should also be studying how the lanes would connect to bus and rail service, to encourage commuters to use mass transit.

Check those "environmentalists" very carefully. Should the states also be studying how to use the existing empty seats? Or does that involve pot helmeted thugs bayoneting people into slug lines?

Those self same "envirornmentalists" will chew up the slugs and spit them out if the slugs are to be so bold as to point out efficient use of empty seats in the cars of the drive alones.

Check out DCEN/FOE. DC environmental network, Friends of the Earth for an organized environtmental group. Slugs need an organization similar to DCEN/FOE.

An example of a DCEN/FOE project:

"Defenders of Potomac River Parkland
Media contact: Sally Strain, 202-363-4546, seawalk@starpower.net,
www.savethecanal.org

Citizens Decry Building of Private Recreation Facility in C&O Canal
National Historical Park..."

dickboyd@aol.com

http://www.roanoke.com/news/roanoke%5C16993.html


Private financing of public roads in Virginia is more concept than
fact, says an analysis by an environmental group.


Little of the money spent to build roads under the state's
Public-Private Transportation Act actually comes from private sources,
according to the Southern Environmental Law Center, based in
Charlottesville....

SELC is the legal arm of the Sierra Club, Virginia chapter. It is not
surprising that they would be trying to come up with diversions such as
this.

The SELC (Southern Environmental Law Center, based in
Charlottesville.) also doesn't seem to mind that the $4 billion Dulles Rail Line
is most of the way through the PPTA process, not yet finally approved,
where Becthel would build the thing WITH NO USER FUNDING WHATSOEVER,
with the entire $4 billion coming from taxpayer largesse. This truly is
a mis-use of the PPTA process, a boondoggle, but since it is not a
highway project, the SELC is not speaking out against it.


dickboyd@aol.com

quote:

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Originally posted by Bob
[br]State panel advances plans for HOT lanes


VDOT will analyze contractors' detailed proposals for I-95 toll lanes

By EDIE GROSS

Date published: 1/21/2005

...--submitted by Clark Construction Group, Shirley Contracting Co. and Koch Performance Roads--would also create three HOT lanes between the Springfield Interchange and U.S. 17 in Stafford....

The second plan, put forth by Fluor Virginia of Arlington, would build three HOT lanes between the 14th Street Bridge outside Washington and State Route 610 in North Stafford, and two HOT lanes from there down to Massaponax.

HOT lanes operate like HOV lanes in that cars carrying three or more occupants can use them for free. But motorists without the required number of passengers could also use the lanes--for a fee.

The Clark/Shirley/Koch team estimates that its 36-mile project will cost about $407 million and take five years to complete. Fluor's 54-mile project would cost $999.3 million and take 61/2 years to finish.

Both teams intend to use bond money, toll revenues and a loan from the Federal Highway Administration to pay for the projects.

...

To reach EDIE GROSS: 540/374-5428 egross@freelancestar.com

Date published: 1/21/2005

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Finally, some dollar figures!

How about some quick back of the envelope calculations?

Three lanes, 36 miles, $407 Million, 5 years
OR 3 to 2 lanes, 54 miles, $999.3 Million, 6-1/2 years.

Projects to be funded by bonds. Bonds raise money by borrowing. There will be an interest rate. There will also be maintenance. Conservatively, interest and maintenance double the cost of the project. Low end is $814 Million. High end is 2.59 times as expensive on a lane mile basis.

Assume the lenders want their money back [with interest] in 30 years. At the low end, that is $27.13 million per year. Assume 200 days per year of collecting tolls. That is $135,700 per day. Half in the morning and half in the afternoon. $67,830 each morning, $67,830 each afternoon. Or if tolls are collected 24 hours per day, $5,650 per hour. Some hours may be more expensive than others.

For free flow, assume 1,500 vehicles per lane-hour. That is 4,500 vehicles per hour for three lanes. About $1.25 per trip each vehicle. About $0.03 per vehicle mile.

Now comes the hard part. Toll lanes will attract motorists only when they provide time and reliability improvements over parallel routes.

Assume rush hour lasts three hours in the morning and three hours in the afternoon. That means the daily expected income of $135,700 per day has to be collected in six hours instead of 24. One-fourth the time, four times the cost. Now we are at $5 per trip or $10 per day.

This scenario of a three hour morning rush hour moves only 13,500 of drive alone commuters. The demand is for something like 20,000 commuters. Every other car will have to carry at least one passenger. Or the free flow restriction would have to be lifted. Commuters would have to settle for capacity. At capacity, 21,600 commuters would be served in drive alone mode. They would pay an additional penalty of increased commuting time and unpredictable travel.

Is unpredictable commuting time desired? That is one question at the heart of the HOT issue.

Are we willing to pay big bucks for a project only to have it stand idle 18 hours a day?

Or is free flow a preferred alternative? If free flow is preferred, how much would it cost? Free flow would mean at least 10 minutes less travel time per trip. Free flow would mean predictable travel time.

How much is your time worth? You know your hourly income and you know your yearly income. You get paid for roughly 2,000 hours every year. There are 8,766 hours in a year (remember leap year). if you are a commuter, your income is upwards of $40,000 per year. About $4.50 per hour. If you count only working hours then you are admitting that time off is worthless. You can come and mow my lawn on your time off if you insist. Saving 10 minutes per trip or 20 minutes a day would be worth about $1.50.

At one extreme, passengers could be limited to buses. Tolls could be raised to buy enough buses to carry the additional 6,500 passengers. About 130 to 150 buses should do. How much would 150 buses cost? Figures I've seen are in the range of $35 per hour plus $1.25 per mile for a bus. Would the buses attract close in commuters or more distant commuters? Using numbers like one hour for each run (empty going out to pick up passengers) and 30 miles per trip, bus cost is about $72.50 per trip. About $1.45 per ride on a 50 passenger bus. That is a tempting number. Would you ride a bus for $1.45 to avoid a toll? How high would the toll have to be to induce you into a bus? Those numbers are operating cost only and don't factor the purchase price of the bus. What do you do with the buses and their drivers outside of rush hours? Two crews with four hour work days?

As a compromise, empty seats in the cars of the drive alones could be used. These passengers are called slugs. Or casual car pools if you prefer.

HOT proposers will use capacity flow of 2,400 vehicles per hour.

Capacity means unpredictable travel times at about 80% of the posted speed.

Free flow means predictable travel times at the posted speed limits.

Is your appetite whetted? Or is your head reeling from all these numbers? Ask your sixth graders to grind the numbers. Ask your High School freshmen to review County budgets. Ask students at Thomas Jefferson what they think about commuting. By the time they join the workforce, toady's discussion is the transportation system they will inherit. Shouldn't they have a say?


dickboyd@aol.com

Members of the Virginia Delegation as well as County Supervisors have been identified as people to contact with your ideas on commuting. HOT ideas in particular.

Those self same delegates and supervisors have staff working on transportation issues. To be effective, people lobbying for some specific transportation issue should use the existing political structure to come to consensus.

There is a Commonwealth Transportation Board that does the footwork for decision making at the State level. Unless CTB goes along, it ain't gonna happen. If the CTB says so, it is practically law.

The Assembly and Senate have transportation related committees. Unless those committees give a thumbs up, it ain't gonna happen. What those committees say is practically law.

Trying to organize general support for a specific issue without working with CTB and the committees is futile.

I say futile because the number of delegates that have slug constituents is a very small number. Not enough votes to swing a budget or policy decision.

However, delegates have assets that are of more use than their single vote. For one, they know the cross section of voters. They know what the hot button issues are and what the majority of their voters think on any issue. They also know the people that are active on addressing issues.

They all have real world jobs. Some even have influence through their real job that is of more interest to slugs than the single vote they represent.

For instance, Ken Plum and Jim Dillard are school teachers. They know who determines what is taught in school. If you spoke nicely to them, you might get an introduction to the group that develops what is taught in school. And if you are really nice as well as being qualified, you might be asked to serve as a citizen advisor.

Does home economics classes have a module that treats transportation costs? Automobile insurance? How are slugs treated in the discussion? Is there a discussion of alternatives to single car commuting?

Do civic classes deal with how local tax money is spent and how to make an objective (or even subjective) comparison of how well tax money is being used?

The slug message might be better delivered out of the mouths of babes rather than some political pulpit.

For instance, Dick Saslaw operates gas stations. When it comes to many votes, he recuses himself for conflict of interest. But Senator Saslaw was very influential in getting the Pentagon exit ramps open for car pools. Ask Senator Saslaw how much of the VRE or METRO money stays in the local area.

How many elected officials have you seen campaigning at a slug line? How many have campaigned at a METRO stop?


dickboyd@aol.com

http://www.dailypress.com/news/local/virginia/dp-va--dullesrail0122jan22,0,4770534.story?coll=dp-headlines-virginia

Developer suggest widening roads rather than extending rail to Dulles


By the Associated Press

Published January 22, 2005

RESTON, Va. -- A Reston-based developer who has fought the multibillion-dollar plan to extend Metrorail to Dulles International Airport has offered his own proposal to ease northern Virginia's transportation woes.

Under his plan, Chris Walker said his company would widen Interstate 66 and the Dulles Toll Road between Washington and the airport--a congested 27-mile route....

dickboyd@aol.com