HOT Lanes - Non-Rush Hour Nightmare?

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   There has been little discussion on this board about the impact of HOT on non-rush hour times.  Especially evenings and weekends. Here's the scenario I was thinking about over the weekend.  Current situation ---It is 6pm on a weekday.  Normally, a massive wave of SOVs heads for the HOV lane because it is opened to them. That lightens the load on the regular lanes.

	Flash forward to 2009. It is 6pm.  Tolls for SOVs are 24/7.  Only one-third of the regular SOV crowd opts to pay the $12 it will cost to get home.  Result--a MASSIVE jam in the regular lanes.

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Bob Members Profile Find Members Posts New Slug Joined: 14 Dec 2001 Status: Offline Points: 0	Post Options Post Reply Quote Bob Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: HOT Lanes - Non-Rush Hour Nightmare? Posted: 18 Sep 2006 at 11:24am
	There has been little discussion on this board about the impact of HOT on non-rush hour times. Especially evenings and weekends. Here's the scenario I was thinking about over the weekend. Current situation ---It is 6pm on a weekday. Normally, a massive wave of SOVs heads for the HOV lane because it is opened to them. That lightens the load on the regular lanes. Flash forward to 2009. It is 6pm. Tolls for SOVs are 24/7. Only one-third of the regular SOV crowd opts to pay the $12 it will cost to get home. Result--a MASSIVE jam in the regular lanes.

N_or_S_bound Members Profile Find Members Posts New Slug Joined: 20 May 2005 Location: VA Status: Offline Points: 0	Post Options Post Reply Quote N_or_S_bound Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 18 Sep 2006 at 11:37am
	It's probably been said before, but I'll ask it just to stimulate this thread some: Are the HOT prices going to be dependent on usage? Or is there just a set fee per mile period? One would think that non-peak hours would receive a reduced price to encourage usage. Supply and demand. NoSb SOV because you can, HOV because you care!

Bob Members Profile Find Members Posts New Slug Joined: 14 Dec 2001 Status: Offline Points: 0	Post Options Post Reply Quote Bob Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 18 Sep 2006 at 11:47am
	It's going to be changeable or dynamic. But the point I am making is that, almost no matter what it is, the traffic in the non-HOT lanes will be much worse during non-rush because of those who previously took the free HOV lanes will be in the regular lanes. I put forth the proposition that dynamic tolling has severe limitations. Another point is that the HOT company has the goal of maximizing profit. This may in many cases not correspond with maximizing overall corridor throughput. For example, if profit is maximized at $1.00 per mile, do you think Fluor will reduce the toll just to improve the regular lanes?

N_or_S_bound Members Profile Find Members Posts New Slug Joined: 20 May 2005 Location: VA Status: Offline Points: 0	Post Options Post Reply Quote N_or_S_bound Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 18 Sep 2006 at 12:06pm
	Don't think they will reduce the toll "just to improve the regular lanes", BUT they WILL reduce the tolls to pick up some business if their HOT lanes are sitting there idle. They're already paying folks to man it, the roads are already there, why wouldn't they try to grab business with dynamic tolls (a la Kmart blue light special)? Doesn't make sense to not attract vehicles when there's plenty available and at some price, some will pay. NoSb SOV because you can, HOV because you care!

Bob Members Profile Find Members Posts New Slug Joined: 14 Dec 2001 Status: Offline Points: 0	Post Options Post Reply Quote Bob Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 18 Sep 2006 at 12:41pm
	As an example of why dynamic tolling wont work. The pro HOT crowd believes that a change in toll rate will result in an instant move in or out of the HOT lane. Wont happen. Reasons: heavy traffic, and limited entry exit points. Lets say its 6:30 pm and there is some extra capacity in the HOT lane. The toll is reduced from $1.00 to $.50 per mile. But, all those people stranded in the regular lane jam will take up to a half hour to make it to the entry point. Dynamic tolling has a major time lag between toll change and traffic change.

N_or_S_bound Members Profile Find Members Posts New Slug Joined: 20 May 2005 Location: VA Status: Offline Points: 0	Post Options Post Reply Quote N_or_S_bound Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 18 Sep 2006 at 1:19pm
	Agreed, but you're looking at it from the point of a consumer. From the point of the vendor, all they will want to do is utilize the capacity they have. They don't care about what it does for traffic flow outside the toll lanes. They just need to maximize cash flow in the toll lanes. Look back at your couple responses. You're responding from the standpoint of the drivers. The toll road vendors could care less about congestion in the main lanes....except that it MAY drive business their way. Note: I'm not taking any sides here. I'm just pointing out what the perspective of the vendor. The more packed the main lanes are, the better for business. Oh, and the better for PERCEIVED customer satisfaction for those silly enough to drive 95/395 on the weekends. NoSb SOV because you can, HOV because you care!

SpongeBob Members Profile Find Members Posts New Slug Joined: 06 Oct 2004 Location: VA Status: Offline Points: 0	Post Options Post Reply Quote SpongeBob Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 18 Sep 2006 at 1:26pm
	That is why they have added all those new exits/entrances. It becomes possible for a driver to slip out of the regular lanes into the carpool lanes to get around bottlenecks, in Fluor's vision. One new N-bound entrance in the plans is around Glebe, I think. Or closer in. Anyway, imagine all the thousands of people in Arlandria getting on the toll road to cross the river. How high would you have to set the toll for that section to keep those people from totally congesting the lanes? Dynamic tolling is the worst, least public-minded of all toll roads, since instead of it being budgeted for everyone to use (like the moderate toll on the Chesapeak Bypass to the OBX) it is designed from the beginning to force poor people off the toll lanes. There is simply no other way to look at it.

NoSUV Members Profile Find Members Posts New Slug Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Status: Offline Points: 0	Post Options Post Reply Quote NoSUV Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 18 Sep 2006 at 10:18pm
	What's the toll for taking the bus?

SpongeBob Members Profile Find Members Posts New Slug Joined: 06 Oct 2004 Location: VA Status: Offline Points: 0	Post Options Post Reply Quote SpongeBob Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 20 Sep 2006 at 10:24am
	Right now, $3.80 vs. free to carpool. Any more stupid questions?

NoSUV Members Profile Find Members Posts New Slug Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Status: Offline Points: 0	Post Options Post Reply Quote NoSUV Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 20 Sep 2006 at 11:26am
	So, the solution to having to pay a toll is to take the bus? Are you saying that taking 10 cars off of the express lanes is bad? For a cost that, if in a REAL carpool, would have to paid anyway?